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Title: The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies
ISBN: 0865715297
Author:
Richard Heinberg
Publicate Date: 2005-06-01
Publish: 2005-06-01
List Price: $17.95
Average Customer Rating: 4.0
Format: Paperback
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Amazon Lowest New Price: $11.00
Amazon Lowest Used Price: $7.47
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1: The author does not understand technology
One of the author's primary contentions is that "the earth is a closed system." A closed system is one in which all of the energy and forces are isolated from external influences; roughly speaking the system is in a tight box. The laws of thermodynamics say that total entropy, i.e. disorder, can only increase. Thus we are doomed, and only the details need be sorted out. The earth, of course, is not a closed system. The sun shines on the earth producing not only solar energy directly, but producing wind and growing plant life that can be used for fuel. This is so obvious, that the author's credibility is reduced to zero by his "closed system" claim.
I don't doubt that oil production is in decline, but it is a slow decline because new technology makes it possible to economically extract more and more oil from oil fields. In the near term, what we mainly have is coal-to-oil conversion (the US has about 200 years worth at current oil consumption levels), oil shale conversion (much larger amounts), and nuclear energy (about 5000 years supply). On the near horizon (perhaps 25 years) are cellulosic ethanol (made from wood chips and inedible vegetation) and solar electric. Further out there is fusion power and solar energy from space transmitted to the ground by microwaves.
The common thread of doomsayers is that they do not understand technology, and more importantly, how economics interacts with the development of technology. There will be interesting events as the world shifts away from oil to alternatives, a process likely to be played out over the next fifty years, but the end of the world scenario is nonsense.
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2: The Future is Now
If you want to know what the near future holds for you, your family and society, Heinberg does a reasonably good job at describing it for the reader. There are, in my opinion, some limits to his content, as well as some "disinformation" about the field of economics, but these are minor issues that do not distract from the meat and potatoes of his message.
The primary focus of this work is based on Peak Oil Theory that was presented by American geologist M. King Hubbert in the mid-1950's -- the fact that the production of available oil will peak, then run out. One of the major criticisms of Hubbert, by the way, is that he was a geologist and not an economist and therefore had limited understanding of the market forces in the decline phases after the peak is reached. This may be true, but I doubt anyone in the mid-1950's had a vision of the modern industrialization of countries like China and India, including their populations' thirst for our world's limited petroleum resources.
I would agree with those, like T. Boone Pickens, who are of the opinion that we are now about a year or two down the road from peak oil with an economy that reflects the fact. Take a look at the stock markets... The markets have been going up when oil goes down in price, yet the reason that oil is going down is based on a U.S. and world-wide economic downturn. When the economic picture looks even a sliver brighter, oil rises eliminating even the small glimmer of a recovery. I heard it described best by an analyst on Bloomberg who described this as an "L-shaped recovery" (the economy will go down and there is no recovery as far as the eye can see) that just about summarizes life post peak oil.
Just as important as peak oil is the concept of cheap oil; in other words, there may be a lot of oil under the ocean but it will be costly to recover. Sure, the Gulf of Mexico may have billions of gallons in deep water off-shore. Perhaps there is another Prudhoe Bay at the bottom of the Marianas Trench... Are you going to pay $25,000 per barrel of oil with current technology to recover it? Inexpensive energy peaked in the 1970's.
Heinberg may have a skewed view of economist -- I don't know of a single student who has covered a micro or macro course in the 101's level that does not understand the ramifications of consuming a limit strategic product without finding alternative resources. It is not going to go well for the United States or any country in the world... Economist do practice a lot of theoreticals with charts, graphs and "what-if's," but they are absolutely cognizant of the world's realities and many of the consequences of price and demand on a finite resource like petroleum.
Finally, I feel that Heinberg paints too positive of a picture of our society when things like power grids and our economic systems fail. Our country, like most other developed nations, keeps their populations compliant by giving citizens a relatively comfortable way of life; the "American way of life if you will." As most of us have seen after Hurricane Katrina, local, state and federal governments have a total inability to control civil unrest on limited scales. Just think if what it will look like when numerous banks fail, prices double overnight, there is no gasoline and the electricity is out. When the gas prices reached $3.75 it was almost impossible to find a policeman on the street and I'm sure this practice was duplicated throughout the country. The prospect gives one great pause that perhaps the "survivalist" may get to see their day come in the near future.
We, in the United States, have lived at the expense of others too long. Our day of reckoning is just around the corner. I don't envy whoever becomes our next president. They'll have a full plate of problems our nation has never seen before.
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3: Or at least the party is winding down...
This book is one of the many that Heinberg has written on the topic of Peak Oil, in addition of course to numerous online articles that he has posted. Much like his other titles, he does not hesitate to call a spade a spade. Would that more writers and commentators would follow his lead in communicating so directly. This effort is among those texts that should be required reading on this topic. It is indispensable.
Heinberg goes at great length into what has precipitated our predicament and he treats options and alternatives in a straightforward and easy to understand manner. He starts by laying a foundation for how the world as we know it has come to be, namely in relation to the enormously generous geological gift we call oil (and other carbon fuel sources). He lays out the trends in oil discovery and its acquisition and how the theorem (or fact) of Hubbert's Peak plays into our current conundrum.
Alternative energy sources is given more than adequate treatment, ranging from natural gas (not entirely a true alternative) to nuclear power, biodiesel, and many others. Heinberg wraps it up by a treatment of the consequences on a global, national, local, and individual level. The afterword concludes this effort nicely by touching on current developments in the realm of related geopolitical events. All told, after having read this book, it is no surprise that Heinberg is considered one of the foremost authors and educators on this topic.
For more Peak Oil reviews: http://www.peakoilresources.com
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4: Fate of Industrial Societies
I like Mr. Heinberg's book very much. His knowledge of the oil business and the energy world is impressive. His insight and technical knowledge is also very good in the book. However, Mr. Heinberg is a liberal democrat and is to the far left on every issue. Mr. Heinberg lives in a very simple world. Liberals are good and virtuous and conservatives are neo-facist and anyone who disagrees with the far left must be a Nazi. Of course, this puts Mr. Heinberg in the camp of the good guys. Mr. Heinberg believes that Mr. Bush (one), started the first Gulf War just to help his Oil buddies get rich. I find this explanation too simple and childlike. I find Mr. Heinberg's understanding about Saudis and the Arab People as naive. Having said this, I can overlook Mr. Heinberg's political views and taste and look at the more important message. This is a great book about energy and the future. It is an important message. This is Mr. Heinberg's best work. Regards, Keith Renick, Project Materials Specialist, Central & Western Region, Project Management Team, Riyadh Refinery, Saudi Aramco Oil Co. Retired.
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5: Understand what energy is all about!
This book covers the topic of how energy has been the most important factor in the evolution of civilization. And how civilization now, is threatened by the depletion of its main source of energy, oil.
I got into Heinberg's work after watching The End of Suburbia, where he makes several appereances and quotes ideas from this book.
My interest was mainly end of oil and energy alternatives, Party is Over goes all the way back to the beginnings, which is good, but sometimes you feel overwhelmed by so much information. Anyways the facts are good to know and definitely reinforce the concept and value of energy, mainly oil.
If you are interested in having a strong fundamental understanding of energy and civilization this is definitely a book you should read. Heinberg really knows what he is talking about, all his arguments are supported with a lot of scientific evidence.
I really admire Richard Heinberg's work, but Ive got to say I liked Power Down better, check it out after checking this one, or if you wanna save some money and time just get Power Down.
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