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Title: The Fourth Turning
ISBN: 0767900464
Author:
William Strauss
Neil Howe
Publicate Date: 1997-12-29
Publish: 1997-12-29
List Price: $17.95
Average Customer Rating: 4.0
Format: Paperback
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Amazon Lowest New Price: $10.12
Amazon Lowest Used Price: $7.75
Amazon Merchant Price: $12.21
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| Customer Review: |
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1: A macro for our time
This startlingly apt volume offers the best explanation I have encountered of how generations create history and history creates generations in a kind of chicken and egg dance through the centuries. It has always seemed a puzzle to me that definable generations exist, given that births are pretty randomly distributed through the months and years--and yet, of course, they do. The cycle described by Strauss and Howe makes clear sense.
However, this book is much more. It presents a vision of history as cyclical and in many ways predictable, bolstered by a look backward through American and English cycles over the past several centuries. The authors then looked forward and made very specific predictions about the coming decade--a period just ending as I write this review. (The book was published in 1997.)
A major event that would trigger reordering of the American psyche? Check. Increased divisivness? Check. Increased xenophobia? Check. An election by 2008 or 2012 at the latest that would bring major change in America's leadership? Can you say Obama? (The movement more than the man, in my view.)
If the authors' presience holds true we are in for some very rough sledding but with the strong possibility that we will emerge from this part of the cycle with a new vision, a new unity, a new pluralism and a new egalitarianism.
A stunning book.
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2: American Prophecy
I loved this book! If you hate history, this is not the book for you. Some parts of this book are slow and some parts of this book there is just too much history. I am concerned about now and today and the next twenty years. I believe in the core idea of the book. Page 6, "the next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium." "Around the year 2005, a suddend spark will catalyze a Crisis mood." "Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode" "Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve question of class, race, nation and empire." "The very survival of the nation will feel at state." "sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and WWII." "The risk of catastrophe will be very high." "The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule." I believe this. Just look at American and World History. It's a history of conflict and economic ups and downs. If you believe nothing bad will ever happen and the next 20,30 or 40 years will be just like the last 20,30 or 40 years and you will never have to suffer, then don't buy this book. On page 277, the author states "war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction." How did the author know this in 1997? War aganist terror? Weapons of mass destruction? It's clear that President Bush read this book. The book is worth the price and time just for chapter 10 and 11. I enjoyed it very much. Regards, Keith Renick, Peachtree City, Ga.
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3: The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy
The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy I found the book too academic to be of any practical value. Although its thesis is interesting, its application seems forced, even sophomoric. Also, the authors seem to have an overenthusiastic regard for Hillary Clinton. The book is outdated and has less impact than the authors may have wanted. We have been through this "the sky is falling" scenario in may other ways, many times before. Its suggestions for surviving the crisis seem like material for fortune cookies or tabloid zodiac advice. Still worth reading-it has some merit, pointing out patterns and interesting ideas.The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy
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4: MUST READ
This book will help you understand Current events. Thing seem crazy now, but not when it is put in context with this book.
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5: From history to prediction
Not only was this book a facinating review of history, but it's breadth was facinating. It's impact is being felt in many areas as I finally read it, because so many places and speakers quote from it. I can only recommend it as they capture certain aspects of where we've been and where we're possibly going, and what we can do about it. It's also helped me make some sense of the growing trends amongst this next generation.
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