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Title: The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World
ISBN: 0143114166
Author:
Alan Greenspan
Publicate Date: 2008-09-09
Publish: 2008-09-09
List Price: $17.00
Average Customer Rating: 4.5
Format: Paperback
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Amazon Lowest New Price: $4.76
Amazon Lowest Used Price: $4.25
Amazon Merchant Price: $11.02
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| Customer Review: |
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1: Greenspan reveals, but not too much
This book has three parts. First, Alan Greenspan tells us about his background, schooling, associations, intellectual influences, and business career. Then he tells us about his public life, from unpaid campaign aide to Nixon in 68 to chairman of the Federal Reserve for 18 years, ending in 2006. Finally, he explains his economic thinking, and how he envisions the world through 2030.
The first part is lively. We see him as a young man playing the saxophone professionally in a big band before falling in love with math and later econometrics, while hanging out with people like Ayn Rand. Contrary to what the Times' critic is quoted as saying on the back cover, Alan Greenspan does not gossip. The people we meet in his autobiography are there for their influence on his thinking.
What stands out about his involvement in government is his assessment of the 8 US presidents he interacted with, from Nixon to Bush-43, and the two that come out on top are Gerald Ford and Bill Clinton, the latter for his steady focus on economic policy.
One requirement of his job as chairman of the Federal Reserve was to make long-winded, cagey public pronouncements that would meter out a calculated dose of information without spooking the markets. Greenspan himself calls it "fedspeak," and, while the first two parts of the book are free of it, the third is written in it.
There are paragraphs you have to read several times to understand whether he expects a particular metric to go up or down. "Significantly" and "perceptibly" are used so often you end up skipping over them, and everything is impersonal. Translated into fedspeak, "Chinese workers keep prices down by accepting low wages" becomes "There is disinflationary pressure due to low labor costs." His most quoted phrase "irrational exuberance" is described as just happening, not as anything anybody felt.
If Greenspan has any reservations about the validity of metrics like the GDP, the CPI, or the Dow-Jones, he does not share them with the reader. I wish he had.
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2: Insightful, Informative & Interesting
As a staunch advocate of free-market capitalism and deregulation, Greenspan has captured and reasoned the core economic beliefs and values he holds in this book - democracy coupled with capitalism improves quality of life.
The first half of the book took us through Greenspan's journey from a child of being obsessed with keeping baseball statistics, to a Julliard music student and finally becoming the Chairman of FRS. Greepspan touched on his relationships with the Presidents he had served and gave a personal recounts of the crisis he had gone through.
The second half of the book is an analysis on the working of economics and politics in the United States, as well as Russia, South America, China and other countries in Asia. Each page is full of insightful information.
It is especially interesting to read it in the midst of election campaign, financial crisis and economic downturn, when skeptics of free-market, critics of deregulation and talks of protectionism begin to emerge. This book is like someone next to me explaining why we should not let a crisis to discredit the good things that free-market capitalism has brought upon us.
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3: Wanna know how the world works?
The first part -- after the intro -- is a very engaging story of the winding path that lead him to macro economics and his role in trying to keep the wheels from coming off the world's biggest capitalist economy. He does not appear to be trying to inflate his own successes or to blame others for recessions. He has a unique perspective on Washington, D.C. The first part moves right along. It helps you to understand that no one has perfect knowledge or a crystal ball for the U.S. or world economy. Also, that the tools that the Fed has to guide the U.S. economy are not precise.
The second part moves a bit slower as he gives some background on capitalism and covers the economies of specific countries. He still has a unique perspective and great insights, but a U.S. reader does not know the players as well.
I listened to the book and the narrator was very good. He did a great job with Mr. Greenspan's wry humor. I might listen to the first part of the book again. Recommended. If you have never taken a class in macro econ, it might be hard to follow. On the other hand, it is a lot more engaging than a macro textbook, so maybe it is a good place to start. (I took macro in 1975 or '76. In 2008 macro might be sexy.)
If you are in college, by all means take an introductory econ class with the best professor you can find, and then take macro. It is not easy stuff, but you will learn a lot more about how the world really works than you would learn in any other class for the same time and effort.
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4: Free Market Capitalism, the engine of global prosperity
This is an outstanding book by any standard. One might contest and even bitterly oppose some of the policies that Greenspan firmly believes in and passionately advocates in the book, but every page clearly brings out the rich experience and clarity of thought of the Maestro of US central banking.
It is a refreshing feeling to read the pages, written in straight forward and simple text, demystifying the complex world of economics and finance. This is a book for the man on the main street as well as for the analyst on Wall Street.
Greenspan starts with the story of the 9/11 attack, when he gets the news from his security staff and his aircraft had to return to Switzerland, since the US airspace was closed. The role of the Fed, and his position as Chairman of the most important financial institution of the United States of America, to steer the country and the world during such crisis is often underestimated.
Greenspan is a firm believer in the "invisible hand" of free markets, as propounded by Adam Smith in his classic "The Wealth of Nations" over two and a quarter centuries ago. The great Scottish economist would be pleased to read this book that explains how his theory has actually become a reality during the most prosperous times of planet earth.
For critics who are quick to point out that the current sub prime crisis, in most part is a creation of the Fed, I would recommend reading the chapter "Irrational Exuberance". Fed has its limitations, even if it can see overinflated asset prices and a frenzy that is unstoppable in markets that ignore good reasoning. Greed overrides sound economics. Just the reverse happens during the crash. Fear knows no limits and there is a stampede to get out of assets that looked so attractive just a few days ago. The Fed primarily restricts its role to monetary policies of determining interest rates and money supply to guide the economic activity to realistic and sustainable levels, with long term price stability. Markets, as free as they are will correct themselves, and have the resilience to absorb the aberrations. I am not sure of Greenspan's personal views on the recent economic bailout announced by the US Government. It is worthwhile to have an additional chapter in the next edition of this book or perhaps a separate book in itself.
Apart from the core topic of the Fed's role in the US and global economy, Greenspan also covers many other interesting topics that have significant global macroeconomic impact. Energy for example is one such where, the analysis of the current scenario and forecasts for meeting future needs in a cost effective and environmentally sustainable manner makes very good reading.
The deteriorating standards in teaching mathematics in primary and secondary schools in America is a topic that perhaps needs immediate attention if America has to maintain her lead in technology and innovation, the catalysts of productivity and economic growth.
In the final chapter Greenspan tries to forecast the US economy in 2030, based on his deep knowledge of economics and his personal experience as chairman of the Fed for nearly two decades. While he is cautiously optimistic that the US economy would be three fourths larger in 2030, he also us warns of some potential landmines that can disrupt the trajectory.
One may not fully agree with Greenspan, but would certainly begin to appreciate that free market economy, individual liberty and freedom, protection of property rights and democracy would be the nonnegotiable principles that would guide humanity towards global peace and prosperity in the twenty-first century.
Five star rating for every page of the book.
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5: Tadd Wood's Review of Alan Greenspan's The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World
Watch Video Here: http://www.amazon.com/review/R20DIAJDJEAJ0E Tadd Wood's review was made as part of a critical review assignment for the Fall 2008 Honors Colloquium on Creative Destruction at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, taught by Art Diamond. (The course syllabus stated that part of the critical review assignment consisted of the making of a video recording of the review, and the posting of the review to Amazon.)
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